The Queen Mother Champion Chase is one of the most prestigious races at the Cheltenham Festival, attracting the best two-mile chasers in the sport.
For those looking to bet on horse racing, understanding key trends can provide valuable insights into what makes a likely winner.
Analysing past results reveals several crucial factors that could help pinpoint the next Champion Chase victor.
Age
Historically, experience plays a significant role in this race, with 10 of the last 12 winners aged between seven and nine.
Horses outside this age bracket tend to struggle, making it an essential factor when evaluating contenders.
Price
Market confidence is often a reliable indicator, as 5 of the last 12 winners were sent off as favourites. Additionally, 11 of the last 12 winners were in the top three in the betting, suggesting that surprise results are rare in this championship race.
Last Run
A strong recent performance is keyBuilding momentum is key in this race, especially when you assess the recent performances of the last champions.
Six of the last 12 winners arrived at Cheltenham on the back of a victory, while nine had their previous run within the last 53 days.
The Clarence House Chase at Ascot is a vital trial. Seven of the last 12 winners ran in that race prior to Cheltenham—four of them won, while another placed.
Previous Course And Distance Form
Course experience is crucial, as 11 of the last 12 winners had at least two prior runs at Cheltenham, with seven already securing a win at the track.
Proven ability over the Champion Chase distance is another key trend – all 12 recent winners had at least eight previous starts over this trip, with 10 of them winning at least six times over similar distances.
Chase Experience And Ratings
This Grade 1 contest demands seasoned chasers. 11 of the last 12 winners had at least seven prior chase runs, and all 12 had secured at least five chase victories before landing this prize.
Additionally, class matters, as 10 of the last 12 winners were rated 162 or higher.
Grade 1 And Season Form
Proven top-level form is a near-essential requirement, with 11 of the last 12 winners having at least one previous Grade 1 victory.
Season performance is also telling – 11 of the last 12 winners had already run at least twice that season, and each had at least one win before lining up at Cheltenham.
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So, what horses match the trends? The most obvious is ante-post favourite Jonbon. The JP McManus-owned horse is seeking his first win at the Cheltenham Festival and ticks the majority of the boxes.
He’s nine years old, at the fore of the betting, he won last time out in the Clarence House Chase at Ascot, has two wins at Prestbury Park, and ample chase and graded experience. Therefore, should take all the beating on the second day of the Festival.
The second favourite, Gaelic Warrior, should be his biggest threat. The seven-year-old is a course and distance winner after landing the Arkle 12 months ago, but he’s yet to win in open company this season, and that’s a major concern.
